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    "headline": "A Small Steering Dose Predicted the Larger Damage",
    "slug": "a-small-steering-dose-predicted-the-larger-damage",
    "dek": "Predictive Memory Localization uses low-strength causal responses to forecast whether an activation intervention will remain selective.",
    "summary": "Predictive Memory Localization uses low-strength causal responses to forecast whether an activation intervention will remain selective.",
    "body_text": "Across 30,000 direction-layer paths and 210,000 strength evaluations, the study separates target movement from harm to semantic neighbors and general capability. Responses at an absolute strength of 0.1 were the strongest predictor of held-out outcomes at 0.25 and 0.5. A selector that could abstain improved reported utility and reduced collateral damage relative to one fixed strength; the result is a bounded intervention study across three matched base models.",
    "why_it_matters": "Predictive Memory Localization uses low-strength causal responses to forecast whether an activation intervention will remain selective.",
    "limitations": [],
    "importance": 8,
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    "first_published_at": "2026-08-15T09:00:00.000-04:00",
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    "tags": [
      "activation steering",
      "model editing",
      "causal intervention",
      "evaluation"
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      "title": "arXiv preprint 2608.12892",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
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      "published_at": "2026-08-13T03:23:32.000-04:00",
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  "publisher": {
    "name": "The Machine Press",
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    "description": "A daily newspaper for the age of artificial intelligence."
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  "cite_this_report": {
    "title": "A Small Steering Dose Predicted the Larger Damage",
    "publisher": "The Machine Press",
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