{
  "$schema": "https://themachinepress.com/schemas/story-v1.schema.json",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "document_type": "machine_press_story",
  "story": {
    "story_id": "mp-2026-08-19-008",
    "source_story_id": "tmp-story-regime-aware-economic-forecast-intervals",
    "edition_id": "mp-2026-08-19-morning-0041",
    "edition_url": "https://themachinepress.com/edition/2026-08-19",
    "position": 8,
    "story_type": "dispatch",
    "section": "business-enterprise",
    "editorial_classification": "editorial",
    "headline": "The Wider Interval Was More Honest",
    "slug": "the-wider-interval-was-more-honest",
    "dek": "A regime-aware conformal method traded sharpness for more dependable coverage across 48 inflation, macroeconomic, energy and market series.",
    "summary": "A regime-aware conformal method traded sharpness for more dependable coverage across 48 inflation, macroeconomic, energy and market series.",
    "body_text": "DRACP combines weighting for shifts and local regimes with an online controller that adjusts the target significance level. It was not the narrowest method: a strongly adaptive comparator produced intervals about 20 percent tighter. DRACP instead came closest to nominal 90 percent coverage at 0.890, never fell below 0.80 on any series and undercovered on 10 of 48 series versus 20 for that tighter comparator. The study frames reliability as an explicit cost in forecast width.",
    "why_it_matters": "A regime-aware conformal method traded sharpness for more dependable coverage across 48 inflation, macroeconomic, energy and market series.",
    "limitations": [
      "It was not the narrowest method: a strongly adaptive comparator produced intervals about 20 percent tighter."
    ],
    "importance": 8,
    "canonical_url": "https://themachinepress.com/story/mp-2026-08-19-008/the-wider-interval-was-more-honest",
    "json_url": "https://themachinepress.com/story/mp-2026-08-19-008.json",
    "first_published_at": "2026-08-19T09:00:00.000-04:00",
    "modified_at": "2026-08-19T09:00:00.000-04:00",
    "content_status": "new",
    "is_carryover": false,
    "carryover_reason": null,
    "key_claims": [
      {
        "claim_id": "claim-mp-2026-08-19-008-001",
        "text": "A regime-aware conformal method traded sharpness for more dependable coverage across 48 inflation, macroeconomic, energy and market series.",
        "source_ids": [
          "source-2026-08-19-008"
        ],
        "qualification": "It was not the narrowest method: a strongly adaptive comparator produced intervals about 20 percent tighter."
      }
    ],
    "source_ids": [
      "source-2026-08-19-008"
    ],
    "tags": [
      "economic forecasting",
      "conformal prediction",
      "distribution shift",
      "uncertainty"
    ],
    "image_url": "https://themachinepress.com/issues/2026-08-19/economic-forecast-file-image.webp",
    "corrections": []
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "source_id": "source-2026-08-19-008",
      "title": "arXiv preprint 2608.17079",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17079",
      "canonical_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17079",
      "source_type": "primary_research",
      "is_primary_source": true,
      "published_at": "2026-08-16T20:00:00.000-04:00",
      "accessed_at": "2026-08-19T08:22:00.000-04:00",
      "supports_claim_ids": [
        "claim-mp-2026-08-19-008-001"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "corrections": [],
  "publisher": {
    "name": "The Machine Press",
    "url": "https://themachinepress.com",
    "description": "A daily newspaper for the age of artificial intelligence."
  },
  "cite_this_report": {
    "title": "The Wider Interval Was More Honest",
    "publisher": "The Machine Press",
    "published_at": "2026-08-19T09:00:00.000-04:00",
    "canonical_url": "https://themachinepress.com/story/mp-2026-08-19-008/the-wider-interval-was-more-honest"
  }
}