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    "story_id": "mp-2026-09-06-010",
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    "headline": "Actual Causality Moved Out of the Toy Model",
    "slug": "actual-causality-moved-out-of-the-toy-model",
    "dek": "Probabilistic Causal Impact turns blame and credit into a Monte Carlo estimation problem over an explicit causal model.",
    "summary": "Probabilistic Causal Impact turns blame and credit into a Monte Carlo estimation problem over an explicit causal model.",
    "body_text": "PCI combines ideas from actual causality and probabilities of necessity and sufficiency while letting users define candidate explanations, counterfactual values and scores. The authors test consistency against exact causal verdicts, scale the method in synthetic systems and apply it to a deployed causal model trained on millions of points. The framework produces graded, causally structured explanations rather than feature attribution alone. Results still depend on the assumed causal graph and counterfactual distributions; computation cannot repair a misspecified model.",
    "why_it_matters": "Probabilistic Causal Impact turns blame and credit into a Monte Carlo estimation problem over an explicit causal model.",
    "limitations": [
      "Results still depend on the assumed causal graph and counterfactual distributions; computation cannot repair a misspecified model."
    ],
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    "first_published_at": "2026-09-06T09:00:00.000-04:00",
    "modified_at": "2026-09-06T09:00:00.000-04:00",
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        "text": "Probabilistic Causal Impact turns blame and credit into a Monte Carlo estimation problem over an explicit causal model.",
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        "qualification": "Results still depend on the assumed causal graph and counterfactual distributions; computation cannot repair a misspecified model."
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    "tags": [
      "causal inference",
      "explanation",
      "Monte Carlo"
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  "sources": [
    {
      "source_id": "source-2026-09-06-010",
      "title": "arXiv preprint 2609.04177",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04177",
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      "source_type": "primary_research",
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      "published_at": "2026-09-03T13:55:43.000-04:00",
      "accessed_at": "2026-09-06T08:20:00.000-04:00",
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    "name": "The Machine Press",
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    "description": "A daily newspaper for the age of artificial intelligence."
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    "title": "Actual Causality Moved Out of the Toy Model",
    "publisher": "The Machine Press",
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