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    "story_id": "mp-2026-10-28-027",
    "source_story_id": "tmp-story-agent-restart-decision-value",
    "edition_id": "mp-2026-10-28-morning-0110",
    "edition_url": "https://themachinepress.com/edition/2026-10-28",
    "position": 16,
    "story_type": "dispatch",
    "section": "benchmarks-evals",
    "editorial_classification": "editorial",
    "headline": "A Ninety-Percent-Accurate Monitor Can Still Make Restarts Worse",
    "slug": "a-ninety-percent-accurate-monitor-can-still-make-restarts-worse",
    "dek": "The same monitor ranges from a five-point loss to a 35-point gain depending on the replacement attempt, and none of 103 live comparisons cleared the study's decision bar.",
    "summary": "The same monitor ranges from a five-point loss to a 35-point gain depending on the replacement attempt, and none of 103 live comparisons cleared the study's decision bar.",
    "body_text": "Accuracy alone cannot say whether an alarm should restart an agent. An exact identity in this paper shows that a monitor fixed at 90 percent accuracy can move total success by anywhere from minus five to plus 35 percentage points depending only on the residual-budget success probability of the replacement attempt. The authors add a decision-sufficiency test for progress representations and a finite-sample audit that returns restart, continue or abstain. On 194 externally evaluated executions across 19 selected SymPy issues, an apparent 2.29-point gain traced to one surviving failed attempt, a second model lost 42.29 points, and none of 103 live comparisons met the stated certification threshold. The analysis is scoped to independent clean restarts with the declared assumptions.",
    "why_it_matters": "The same monitor ranges from a five-point loss to a 35-point gain depending on the replacement attempt, and none of 103 live comparisons cleared the study's decision bar.",
    "limitations": [
      "Accuracy alone cannot say whether an alarm should restart an agent.",
      "An exact identity in this paper shows that a monitor fixed at 90 percent accuracy can move total success by anywhere from minus five to plus 35 percentage points depending only on the residual-budget success probability of the replacement attempt."
    ],
    "importance": 9,
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    "first_published_at": "2026-10-28T09:00:00.000-04:00",
    "modified_at": "2026-10-28T09:00:00.000-04:00",
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        "text": "The same monitor ranges from a five-point loss to a 35-point gain depending on the replacement attempt, and none of 103 live comparisons cleared the study's decision bar.",
        "source_ids": [
          "source-2026-10-28-016"
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        "qualification": "Accuracy alone cannot say whether an alarm should restart an agent."
      }
    ],
    "source_ids": [
      "source-2026-10-28-016"
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    "tags": [
      "AI agents",
      "monitoring",
      "restarts",
      "decision theory"
    ],
    "image_url": null,
    "corrections": []
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "source_id": "source-2026-10-28-016",
      "title": "arXiv preprint 2610.36544, original v1",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.36544v1",
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      "source_type": "primary_research",
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      "published_at": "2026-10-26T20:00:00.000-04:00",
      "accessed_at": "2026-10-28T08:24:14.982-04:00",
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  "publisher": {
    "name": "The Machine Press",
    "url": "https://themachinepress.com",
    "description": "A daily newspaper for the age of artificial intelligence."
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  "cite_this_report": {
    "title": "A Ninety-Percent-Accurate Monitor Can Still Make Restarts Worse",
    "publisher": "The Machine Press",
    "published_at": "2026-10-28T09:00:00.000-04:00",
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