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The Route Planner Reconsidered Only Its Uncertain Waypoints

Stochastic consensus plus selective reconsideration cut mean displacement error 25.1% across 400 held-out aerial queries.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-09-16-026
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Summary

Stochastic consensus plus selective reconsideration cut mean displacement error 25.1% across 400 held-out aerial queries.

A vision-language waypoint planner normally emits one route without saying how reliable it is. UDAV samples multiple trajectories from aerial imagery, chooses the medoid and treats their spatial spread as uncertainty. When an interior waypoint crosses a threshold, it invokes a reconsideration stage. Across 400 held-out queries from two UAV flights, medoid selection cut mean average displacement error from 147.4 to 115.9 pixels; the complete planner reached 110.4 pixels, a 25.1% reduction, while returning valid trajectories for all queries. Pixel error on two flights is not evidence of safe autonomous navigation.

Why it matters

Stochastic consensus plus selective reconsideration cut mean displacement error 25.1% across 400 held-out aerial queries.

Limits and context

  • Pixel error on two flights is not evidence of safe autonomous navigation.

Key claims

  1. Stochastic consensus plus selective reconsideration cut mean displacement error 25.1% across 400 held-out aerial queries.

    Qualification: Pixel error on two flights is not evidence of safe autonomous navigation.

    Evidence: source-2026-09-16-015

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2609.16368arXiv · primary research

Corrections

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