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The Confidence Gate Failed Outside Finance

Selective abstention cut in-domain sentence error below 2 percent, but found no useful clean subset under extreme social-media shift.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-08-22-027
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Summary

Selective abstention cut in-domain sentence error below 2 percent, but found no useful clean subset under extreme social-media shift.

The study stress-tested financial named-entity recognizers across SEC filings, financial news and general social media. Whole-output probability was the best in-domain error signal but deteriorated under shift; span probability and self-consistency were more robust. Abstention reduced sentence error from 34.3 percent to below 2 percent on the most confident 40 percent of in-domain inputs and remained useful on news, but failed to recover a usefully large clean subset on the extreme out-of-domain tier. The result favors upstream shift detection before confidence gating.

Why it matters

Selective abstention cut in-domain sentence error below 2 percent, but found no useful clean subset under extreme social-media shift.

Limits and context

No additional limitation was separately recorded.

Key claims

  1. Selective abstention cut in-domain sentence error below 2 percent, but found no useful clean subset under extreme social-media shift.

    Evidence: source-2026-08-22-016

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2608.19558arXiv · primary research

Corrections

No corrections have been recorded for this story.