The Flight Plan Carried an Uncertainty Tube Into the Storm

Advanced-air-mobility flight plans must account for uncertainty in where an aircraft will be when a moving weather hazard arrives. This proposed framework fits a kinematic path with NURBS curves, propagates state covariance with a Kalman filter and transforms velocity uncertainty into arrival-time bounds. Gridded weather becomes intensity-stratified polyhedral volumes expanded by aircraft-specific safety buffers. Mesh intersections then test the spatial uncertainty tube and temporal overlap. The paper presents a planning framework rather than an operational validation or certification result, so its value lies in making uncertainty and operator thresholds explicit before flight.