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The Wrong Atmosphere Could Hide a Biased Neutron-Star Radius

At 20× stronger spot contrast, hydrogen-versus-helium mismatch shifted radius estimates while leaving acceptable residuals.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-09-19-027
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Summary

At 20× stronger spot contrast, hydrogen-versus-helium mismatch shifted radius estimates while leaving acceptable residuals.

Synthetic NICER pulse data modeled on the roughly 2.1-solar-mass pulsar PSR J0740+6620 showed little radius bias from choosing hydrogen instead of helium, or vice versa, at the observed spot-to-background ratio. When the ratio increased about twentyfold with total counts held near 550,000, the wrong atmosphere produced significant radius bias while still fitting with statistically acceptable residuals. Bayesian evidence consistently preferred the correct composition, making model comparison—not residual inspection alone—the safeguard.

Why it matters

At 20× stronger spot contrast, hydrogen-versus-helium mismatch shifted radius estimates while leaving acceptable residuals.

Limits and context

  • Bayesian evidence consistently preferred the correct composition, making model comparison—not residual inspection alone—the safeguard.

Key claims

  1. At 20× stronger spot contrast, hydrogen-versus-helium mismatch shifted radius estimates while leaving acceptable residuals.

    Qualification: Bayesian evidence consistently preferred the correct composition, making model comparison—not residual inspection alone—the safeguard.

    Evidence: source-2026-09-19-016

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2609.20795arXiv · primary research

Corrections

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