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A Cheap Judge Escalated Its Uncertain Calls

Confidence routing preserved most comparator accuracy at lower reported cost.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-09-23-018
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Summary

Confidence routing preserved most comparator accuracy at lower reported cost.

A decision-only judge came within three points of a stronger comparator on ordinary preference and factuality tasks at 0.36% of its reported fee. A frozen confidence cascade retained 99% of comparator accuracy while escalating the harder cases, though derivations and polished wrong answers remained weak spots.

Why it matters

Confidence routing preserved most comparator accuracy at lower reported cost.

Limits and context

  • A decision-only judge came within three points of a stronger comparator on ordinary preference and factuality tasks at 0.36% of its reported fee.

Key claims

  1. Confidence routing preserved most comparator accuracy at lower reported cost.

    Qualification: A decision-only judge came within three points of a stronger comparator on ordinary preference and factuality tasks at 0.36% of its reported fee.

    Evidence: source-2026-09-23-020

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2609.26550arXiv · primary research

Corrections

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