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The Malware Detector Can Fail Without Moving Its Metrics

Across 453,174 injected faults, 72.3 percent of evaluated tree-model faults barely changed aggregate recall or false-positive rate, even when individual predictions moved.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-10-28-009
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Summary

Across 453,174 injected faults, 72.3 percent of evaluated tree-model faults barely changed aggregate recall or false-positive rate, even when individual predictions moved.

Hardware malware detectors classify performance-counter patterns, but faults inside their own decision logic can quietly change which executions pass. Researchers injected 453,174 stuck-at and selected parameter-bit faults across 18 classifiers, counter budgets and ensemble designs. Tree models showed a lower mean critical-fault fraction than function-based models, 5.3 versus 14.3 percent. Yet 72.3 percent of evaluated tree faults were metric-silent by the study's aggregate threshold, despite possible changes to individual predictions. In a representative J48 design, an idealized selection method identified 16 of 115 structural units whose protection reduced predicted worst-case recall loss from 60.1 to 3.3 points. RTL correspondence and physical hardening cost remain unvalidated.

Why it matters

Across 453,174 injected faults, 72.3 percent of evaluated tree-model faults barely changed aggregate recall or false-positive rate, even when individual predictions moved.

Limits and context

  • RTL correspondence and physical hardening cost remain unvalidated.

Key claims

  1. Across 453,174 injected faults, 72.3 percent of evaluated tree-model faults barely changed aggregate recall or false-positive rate, even when individual predictions moved.

    Qualification: RTL correspondence and physical hardening cost remain unvalidated.

    Evidence: source-2026-10-28-009

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2610.36612, original v1arXiv · primary research

Corrections

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