research
The Clinical Model Is Judged Where False Alarms Matter
TRACER was tested on 16 incident diseases in more than two million patients from two health systems excluded from development.
Summary
TRACER was tested on 16 incident diseases in more than two million patients from two health systems excluded from development.
Global discrimination scores can conceal whether a screening model overwhelms clinicians with false alerts. TRACER was pretrained on electronic health records from more than 4.5 million patients across four systems, then evaluated for 16 diseases at one-, two- and five-year horizons in over two million patients from two systems excluded from development. At 95 percent specificity, flagged patients were up to eight times more likely than unselected patients to receive a diagnosis within a year. Performance and alert burden still varied by disease and health system. The study demonstrates external evaluation, not readiness for clinical use or proof that earlier prediction improves outcomes.
Why it matters
TRACER was tested on 16 incident diseases in more than two million patients from two health systems excluded from development.
Limits and context
- The study demonstrates external evaluation, not readiness for clinical use or proof that earlier prediction improves outcomes.
Key claims
TRACER was tested on 16 incident diseases in more than two million patients from two health systems excluded from development.
Qualification: The study demonstrates external evaluation, not readiness for clinical use or proof that earlier prediction improves outcomes.
Evidence: source-2026-11-01-011
Sources
- arXiv preprint 2610.40536, original v1arXiv · primary research
Corrections
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