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TESS Finds the Neptunian Ridge Again

An independent occurrence analysis finds roughly twice the planet density at three-to-six-day orbits for planets five to eight Earth radii.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-11-03-005
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Summary

An independent occurrence analysis finds roughly twice the planet density at three-to-six-day orbits for planets five to eight Earth radii.

Kepler data identified an overdensity between the Neptunian desert and savanna. Using TESS occurrence posteriors for FGK main-sequence stars, this analysis finds that five-to-eight-Earth-radius planets are about 2.05 times as dense in the ridge as in the denser neighboring region, with 99.9 percent posterior support. Profiles peaking inside the ridge outperform a single power law, and a lognormal profile is preferred, although evidence for asymmetry is weak. The same analysis recovers the hot-Jupiter pileup and finds no analogous sub-Neptune excess. The shape is compatible with high-eccentricity migration, but the study does not establish that mechanism.

Why it matters

An independent occurrence analysis finds roughly twice the planet density at three-to-six-day orbits for planets five to eight Earth radii.

Limits and context

  • The shape is compatible with high-eccentricity migration, but the study does not establish that mechanism.

Key claims

  1. An independent occurrence analysis finds roughly twice the planet density at three-to-six-day orbits for planets five to eight Earth radii.

    Qualification: The shape is compatible with high-eccentricity migration, but the study does not establish that mechanism.

    Evidence: source-2026-11-03-005

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2611.03643, original v1arXiv · primary research

Corrections

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