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The Fire Detector Learns Its Alarm Threshold

Conformal calibration met 10, 5 and 1 percent miss-rate targets across two compact detectors.

Published Updated Story ID: mp-2026-11-10-016
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Summary

Conformal calibration met 10, 5 and 1 percent miss-rate targets across two compact detectors.

A fixed 0.5 confidence threshold produced miss rates of 17.3 and 8.4 percent on the same fire-and-smoke set. Held-out calibration met all three target miss rates; at the 5 percent target, false alarms stayed between 1.2 and 3.0 percent. Smoke-only cases remained a weakness.

Why it matters

Conformal calibration met 10, 5 and 1 percent miss-rate targets across two compact detectors.

Limits and context

  • Smoke-only cases remained a weakness.

Key claims

  1. Conformal calibration met 10, 5 and 1 percent miss-rate targets across two compact detectors.

    Qualification: Smoke-only cases remained a weakness.

    Evidence: source-2026-11-10-018

Sources

  1. arXiv preprint 2611.11757, original v1arXiv · primary research

Corrections

No corrections have been recorded for this story.