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The Weather Agent Prices the Crop Risk
A Florida prototype reproduced held-out recorded losses within 2 percent and ranked county outcomes against independent production data.
Summary
A Florida prototype reproduced held-out recorded losses within 2 percent and ranked county outcomes against independent production data.
A storm forecast identifies weather, not which crops will lose value. WxCrop links physically interpretable weather indices with insurance and agricultural records to estimate crop loss for hurricanes, freezes and dry heat in Florida. The hurricane index detected recorded cyclone days at 0.98 AUC; held-out recorded losses were reproduced within 2 percent, and county rankings correlated 0.63 with independent production records. The interface sources each reported number. The results are a Florida demonstration calibrated to specific records, so extension to other hazards and regions remains a claim to test rather than an established deployment result.
Why it matters
A Florida prototype reproduced held-out recorded losses within 2 percent and ranked county outcomes against independent production data.
Limits and context
- A storm forecast identifies weather, not which crops will lose value.
Key claims
A Florida prototype reproduced held-out recorded losses within 2 percent and ranked county outcomes against independent production data.
Qualification: A storm forecast identifies weather, not which crops will lose value.
Evidence: source-2026-11-01-005
Sources
- arXiv preprint 2610.40641, original v1arXiv · primary research
Corrections
No corrections have been recorded for this story.